Market Analysis: Grails Season III by PROOF

Let's review the numbers behind the Grails Season III

Hello, amigos/amigas!

Over the past few days, the Blind Gallery has kept me busy —which has been the fastest edition to mint out, and only ~160 Mint Passes are left with 3 days to go!

I’ve been taking small breaks during the Blind Gallery to do a market analysis about one of the pioneering events in the digital art world - Grails Season III by PROOF.

How things fit together by Zach Lieberman #147

I followed the event closely and had the chance to share my guesses with the PROOF team, artists, and other collectors over a Twitter Space… It turns out I was right on 18. How things fit together by Zach Lieberman, and my guess on Sofia Crespo wasn’t that wild (she made Grail 6 unsynthesized #423, not 15. Tempelfjord as I thought).

Listen to the recording here.

Twitter avatar for @proof_xyz

PROOF (🥃,🦉) @proof_xyz

There are 24 hours to go until Grails Season III mints close! Join us today, January 23 at 2PM PST for another Grails Season III Roundtable with another Mint Pass giveaway and guests @marloljohnson @NedRyersonBing @Kaloh_nft @DepecheNode_ and @pudding_xyz!


4:58 PM ∙ Jan 23, 2023


In this market analysis, I will go through the Grails III innovations, each artwork's stats - including the top 3 by different categories - and at the end, a summary of the 3 showcased generative (long-form) collections.

Before we get started, a couple of reminders:

  • If this is the first time reading my market analysis, I suggest you read this first.

  • This report is purely analytical. I’m not analyzing collections from an artistic point of view. I do that in other articles.

  • I gathered the stats from OpenSea. It is highly possible these aren’t 100% accurate as new marketplaces emerge daily. Nevertheless, the numbers should be very close to reality.

  • This isn’t financial advice. NFTs are highly volatile, and you should always do your own research.

Link to spreadsheet.

Grails Season III by PROOF - captured on 10.2.2023.

Grails Season III by PROOF - captured on 10.2.2023.

Overall, PROOF brought several innovations, including series and caps per artwork. Series are those Grails that include unique pieces, sometimes 1/1s, other times multi editions but usually a small supply.

The inclusion of caps had a significant impact, as many collectors redeemed their Mint Passes quickly, so they didn’t miss the chance to mint their favorite artwork.

Besides these new dynamics, the team again stepped up their game with a broadcasted show, which was recorded and shared over YouTube.

I enjoyed the commentary by all the guests - it feels like this sort of conversation and discussion adds the necessary context, which is especially important to appreciate the art, effort, and the creators behind digital art.

Now let’s jump into some numbers.

General Stats - Mint Passes

  • Total: 1000

  • Non-redeemed: 85 (10 more than Season II).

  • Primary Sales: 0.05 ETH x 1000 = 50 ETH*

*Can’t confirm the exact amount of Mint Passes purchased as artists, team members, and PROOF Collective usually receive airdrops.

The Grails Season III Mint Pass.

The Grails Season III Mint Pass.

General Stats - Artworks

  • Unique Artworks: 460

  • Total Secondary Volume: 378 ETH

  • Average floor: 5.8 ETH

  • Average listed for sale: 17%

Due to the series’ innovation, there are 460 unique pieces across all the artworks in Grails Season 3. Huge deal considering there weren’t unique pieces in Seasons I and II.

Could some of those unique pieces drive big sales down the line?

Top 3 Grails by volume

Proof of Origin - Picture of the Planets by Matt Kane

Proof of Origin - Picture of the Planets by Matt Kane floor spiked from around 2 ETH to over 7 ETH after the reveal.

Top 3 Grails by floor

Man Machine by Killer Acid currently has the highest floor

Man Machine by Killer Acid currently has the highest floor (50 ETH), although no secondary sales have been recorded on OpenSea.

Top 3 Grails by listings

Average listings sit at 17%, and the median is 16%. Bathybius Haeckelii by Mika Tajima is the only collection with listings over 30% (33.33%), and How things fit together by Zach Lieberman follows closely with 29.82% of pieces listed.

Generative Coded Collections

There were 3 generative coded collections (long-form) in this season. Let’s dig deeper into those:

Reticulum by Harvey Rayner (150/150)

  • Floor: 1.15 ETH

  • Total Volume: 57 ETH

  • Listings: 21%

Reticulum by Harvey Rayner

Reticulum by Harvey Rayner

I believe this was one of the first artworks to mint out. It drew comparisons to other generative collections like Casey Reas' Pre-Process and Yazid’s Constellations, but ultimately, the rumors that Harvey Rayne was the creator were prevalent. The main reason is the similarity to Fontana’s background (released on Art Blocks) by Harvey.

How things fit together by Zach Lieberman (57/150)

  • Floor: 1.59 ETH

  • Total Volume: 3 ETH

  • Listings: 30%

As I said earlier, this was the only one I guessed this one correctly (I saw some previews from Zach that were pretty similar). I’m still surprised by the floor, considering there are only 57 pieces in this collection. This is Zach’s third long-form collection after horizon(te)s (collab with Iskra Velitchkova on fxhash) and 100 Sunsets (released via Bright Moments).

Realization by Mpkoz (150/150)

  • Floor: 1.4 ETH

  • Total Volume: 22 ETH

  • Listings: 15%

This one wasn’t easy to guess, and I heard speculation it could be Melissa Wiederrecht or Zach Lieberman. After the reveal, I searched Mpkoz’s (Michael Kozlowski) work as I wasn’t very familiar. If you are wondering, his flagship collection is Chimera on Art Blocks Curated.

Realization #95 by Mpkoz

Realization #95 by Mpkoz

I enjoyed the inclusion of additional mechanics; both the series and caps make a lot of sense and allow much more flexibility - for artists and the curatorial team. I also appreciated the diversity of art styles, tools/mediums, and artists’ backgrounds.

As a closing note, I wish there were more shows like the Season III reveal. With the fantastic amount of art and artists, there is room for such events without creating new artwork. In short, someone should make a high-quality production show that covers historically relevant digital art.

Until next time,

- Kaloh

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