🧬 Art Blocks Isn't Doing Too Bad, Is It?

Last Friday, I shared my first Art Blocks Curated market analysis. Today I’m doing a follow-up to explore the evolution in the previous few days. We can now track the floor and listings changes.

Before getting into it, this isn’t financial advice. Please do your own research.

Link to spreadsheet → https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gW0r8ZPRIgFU2xfK6P3TLuN_Jc0hT1J5A8jdM3uRS88/edit#gid=371251185

Art Blocks Curated Market Analysis - 10.5.2022

• As you may know, Ethereum has been going down (as basically all crypto and non-crypto markets). It decreased from ~$2600 to ~$2300 (30% down compared to one month ago).

• Yesterday (9th of May 2022), ~1.1M transactions happened on the Ethereum blockchain. We will take this number as a benchmark for future updates.

• General Floors went up by 26%, and 12% up after adjusting to $. Although most NFTs are down, Art Blocks Curated collections gained value over the past five days.

• The number of listings increased considerably from 8.78% to ~11%. This means holders were trying to sell during these days after seeing the floor gains.

• Algobots by Stina Jones gained almost 100% on the floor and almost broke the 2 Eth floor barrier (1.94 Eth).

• Ringers by Dmitri Cherniak had the most significant upside in absolute ETH value, as the floor from 35 ETH to 59.9 ETH.

• Vortex by Jen Stark was the biggest gainer after moving from 0.3 Eth to 0.7 (+133%).

• Trossets by Anna Carreras gained 99% on the floor after moving from 0.35 ETH to 0.7 ETH. Trossets was mentioned in the previous analysis as it was in the top 3 on PTFR and PTFRwS (experimental metrics, I wrote about these metrics here).

• Only 720 Minutes by Alexis André lost more than 10% on the floor (from 1.66 ETH to 1.44 ETH).

• When looking at the adjusted floors (the actual gain or losses in $), Endless Nameless, Asemica, Anticyclone, and Unigrids join 720 Minutes as their floors went down more than 10%.

Here are some interesting insights that surprised me and might indicate good opportunities.

Judging by the metrics, the following collections look interesting:

By the number of listings (a low number of listings indicates most collectors are looking to hold the pieces, at least in the short term, which may cause a supply shock and, therefore, an increase in value):

• Elevated Deconstructions by luxpris listings went down 1.5%. This might seem like a small change, but it looks interesting considering that collections increased their listings by 2.4%. Additionally, only 6% of pieces are listed for sale.

• Chromie Squiggle by Snowfro only has 3.5% pieces listed for sale. This is incredibly low.

At the moment, the following collections have too many pieces listed for sale:

• Anticyclone by William Mapan (16.5%)

• Para Bellum by Matty Mariansky (16.20%)

• Ancient Courses of Fictional Rivers by Robert Hodgin (16.10%). This one, in particular, jumped from 11% to 16.10% listings in five days.

Popularity To Floor Ratio with/without supply maintained the same three collections at the top (remember this is an experimental metric):

• Geometry Runners by Rich Lord

• Trossets by Anna Carreras

• Scribbled Boundaries by William Tan

In the future, I plan to include the following metrics in the analysis (you could consider them already):

• Unique Holders:

  1. this metric indicates how well distributed a collection is among collectors. In theory, you would like to hold at least one piece of a collection to have exposure if it goes up, so a well-distributed collection (over 50%) could indicate less future supply as collectors won’t try to sell as often.

  2. Additionally, a not so well distributed collection could be prone to market manipulation. If one person owns too many, they could list significant amounts at any time and therefore drop the value.

• Popularity to Floor Ratio (with Supply) filtered by dates:

  1. Right now, we are factoring in the historical volume of all collections. Ideally, we can filter by the previous X amount of months to find interesting patterns.

Until next time,

- Kaloh

PD: Feel free to reach out in case you have feedback; I’m always trying to get better over time reviewing Art Blocks and other platforms 🤜